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African Monsoon Systems: Climate Dynamics and Change

A monsoon climate is one in which there is a 180º change in the low-level wind direction between summer and winter.  Over Africa, monsoon climates exist over West Africa and over tropical East Africa.  The basic features and fluid dynamics of each of these monsoon systems is discussed in the first part of this talk.  Then, the topic of predicting climate change is addressed.  An overview of the basic tools used for climate prediction is provided, followed by a presentation of simulation design and projections for the African monsoon regions for the mid- and late-21 st century.  The dynamics of the monsoon response to global warming is discussed, along with methods of evaluating confidence in the projections.