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Uncertainties in predicting fires in a future climate and their effects on air quality in North America

I will discuss the impact of climate change on wildfires and resultant effects on air quality in North America.The main focus will be on the western U.S.Fires are an important source of carbonaceous aerosol in the west.Our early work showed that wildfires drive the inter annual variability of organic carbon in the west, reproducing the observed variability in summer.We derived regression relationships between the area burned by fires and surface weather and fire indices from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system, then used these relationships with meteorological fields from a GCM to predict changes in area burned. We have also developed a parameterization method for predicting fires. Most recently we have explored the robustness of the predictions for fires by mid-century from both these methods using output from 15 GCMs.I will  show the impacts on carbonaceous aerosol using a chemical transport  model driven by meteorological fields from the GISS GCM3.