Over the past few decades, aerosol concentrations have been declining in North America, China, and Europe. While cleaner air offers significant health benefits, the reduction of aerosol pollution has also diminished the cooling effect of clouds, accelerating climate warming in the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic. This recent unmasking of hidden greenhouse gas warming is not adequately represented in global Earth System Models. Therefore, the future consequences of mitigating aerosol pollution remain uncertain. Although aerosol concentrations are widely anticipated to continue declining over the next few decades, it may be possible to reduce or offset the rate of warming in the near future. On one hand, the mitigation of black carbon aerosol emissions would yield climate and air quality benefits, particularly for the Arctic. Furthermore, the enhancement of naturally occurring sea salt aerosols through Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) could potentially delay severe warming impacts during a climate emergency. Nevertheless, investments in scientific research and improvements in aerosol modeling capabilities are essential to reduce uncertainties.
From Pollution to Geoengineering: Climate Consequences of Changing Aerosol Emissions
Host: Luke Fraser-Leach