Skip to Content

Teleconnection-Modulated Atmospheric Rivers in North America and Their Impact on Precipitation, Soil Moisture, Wildfire Frequency and Burned Areas

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) transport moisture over hundreds of kilometers across North America and coupled with atmospheric systems of various scales, trigger extreme events such as floods, but the absence of ARs might be related to droughts. In this study, a state-of-the-art AR detection method to investigate trends using the Mann-Kendall method shows statistically significant trends only in autumn on the west coast, based on ERA5 and MERRA2 data. On the east coast, significant trends are observed during winter and spring. The positive AR trends on the west coast do not align with the negative trends in precipitation and soil moisture, but they do correspond to increases in precipitation on the east coast. Lagged-correlation analyses, furthermore, indicate that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific-North American patterns are responsible for increasing the frequency of ARs, notably across the west coast and the central part of Canada. However, over the east coast (central US) the North Atlantic Oscillation (North American Monsoon) plays the primary role in inducing higher incidence of ARs. Results further demonstrate that ARs affect the North American climate across different regions, inducing changes in soil moisture, wildfire frequency and burned area. The investigation conducted here also indicates lagged associations between ARs and wildfires on both the west and east coasts, indicating the potential to assess in advance the impact of AR frequency on the upcoming fire season.

Host: Fengyi Xie
Event series  Atmospheric Physics SeminarsNoble Seminar Series