In
this Brewer seminar, I will discuss why the Transformed Eulerian Mean
is unsuited to approximate the moist meridional overturning circulation.
I will show possible fixes from different studies but will ultimately
introduce a new solution: the Statistical Transformed Eulerian Mean. I
will show that this approach makes it possible to obtain an accurate
approximation to the moist overturning circulation by emphasizing the
role of large moisture variances. I will then illustrate how the
relative simplicity of the Statistical TEM formulation can be used to
split the moist circulation into its sensible heat and latent heat
components. Finally, I will explain what this approximation tells us
about the effective moist stratification in the midlatitudes and give
heuristic arguments to how it could be affected by warming surface
temperatures.