Title:
Linking climate variability to surface ozone trends and extremes
Abstract:
Advancing
knowledge on the role of internal climate variability on surface ozone
has implications not only for interpreting observed ozone trends
over the past few decades but also for understanding uncertainties in
projecting the response of surface ozone extremes to global climate
change. Climate variability is manifested in changes in the occurrence
of atmospheric circulation patterns, which can vary strongly from year
to year, but can show trends over multi-decadal periods too. In this
talk, I will discuss how interannual to decadal climate variability
modulates frequency of deep stratospheric ozone intrusions reaching
surface air, hemispheric pollution transport, regional heat waves and
their impacts on observed surface ozone trends and extremes at northern
mid-latitudes over the past half century (1960-2014). The results are
based on an integrated analysis of available long-term ozone observation
records and a suite of chemistry-climate model hindcasts designed to
isolate the response of ozone to changes in human-induced emissions of
non-methane ozone precursors, methane, wildfires, and meteorology.